My projections for 351 teams will be revealed by Sports Illustrated next week. But today I want to use those projections to compute the odds for this year's early season tournaments.
Puerto Rico Tipoff
Puerto Rico Tipoff |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Texas A&M |
38% |
12% |
7% |
Dayton |
62% |
26% |
18% |
College of Charleston |
11% |
2% |
1% |
Connecticut |
89% |
59% |
45% |
New Mexico |
55% |
26% |
8% |
Boston College |
45% |
20% |
5% |
George Mason |
36% |
16% |
4% |
West Virginia |
64% |
38% |
13% |
UConn is likely to use a 4-guard lineup with Ryan Boatright, transfer Rodney Purvis, JUCO Sam Cassell Jr, and five-star freshman Daniel Hamilton at times this year. I’m looking forward to seeing that lethal offensive attack unleashed.
Texas A&M's odds of winning the tournament got a lot better when it was announced that transfer Jalen Jones would eligible in November, but they have to go through two NCAA tournament teams from a year ago, Dayton and Connecticut, just to reach the finals.
Charleston Classic
Charleston Classic |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
USC |
52% |
17% |
7% |
Akron |
48% |
15% |
6% |
Drexel |
18% |
7% |
2% |
Miami FL |
82% |
61% |
39% |
Penn St. |
71% |
38% |
19% |
Charlotte |
29% |
10% |
3% |
Cornell |
10% |
1% |
0% |
South Carolina |
90% |
51% |
25% |
Miami (FL) won't be 100% in this tournament as Ivan Uceda must sit out the start of the season and cannot play until January. But with transfers Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez leading the way, and redshirt freshman Deandre Burnett now healthy, they are still the tournament favorite.
I understand why Penn St. and South Carolina aren't getting more love nationally. After the way their teams have performed historically, people tend to write them off before the season starts. But both teams have veteran lineups with more skilled players than most people realize, and don't be surprised if one of those teams wins this tournament.
2K Sports Classic
2K Sports |
Final |
Champ |
Texas |
60% |
40% |
Iowa |
40% |
22% |
Syracuse |
64% |
27% |
California |
36% |
11% |
Texas has a deep and talented frontcourt with Cameron Ridley, Myles Turner, Jonathan Holmes, and Connor Lammert. But so does Iowa. Aaron White, Jarrod Uthoff, Adam Woodbury, and Gabriel Olaseni aren't just going to roll over. Their first-round game is a great early season match-up.
Cal is an underdog in this field, but they have over a 50% chance of winning at least one game, and any victory in this tournament will resonate on Selection Sunday.
Paradise Jam
Paradise Jam |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Clemson |
76% |
42% |
19% |
Gardner Webb |
24% |
7% |
2% |
Seton Hall |
70% |
40% |
19% |
Nevada |
30% |
11% |
3% |
LSU |
66% |
45% |
29% |
Old Dominion |
34% |
18% |
9% |
Illinois St. |
77% |
33% |
18% |
Weber St. |
23% |
4% |
1% |
The bracketing here didn't do tournament favorite LSU any favors. First round opponent Old Dominion has a veteran team that should be much improved thanks to the addition of transfers Jonathan Arledge and Trey Freeman.
If Clemson and Seton Hall meet in the second round, it should be a great matchup. Clemson has a veteran team that plays outstanding defense while Seton Hall has a talented young recruiting class led by super-scorer Isaiah Whitehead.
Coaches vs Cancer
Coaches vs Cancer |
Final |
Champ |
Stanford |
66% |
19% |
UNLV |
34% |
6% |
Duke |
90% |
72% |
Temple |
10% |
3% |
If you love watching elite freshman, this is the tournament to watch. Duke has Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Grayson Allen, while UNLV has Rashad Vaughn, Dwayne Morgan, and Goodluck Okonoboh. Meanwhile Stanford has Reid Travis, Robert Cartwright, and Michael Humphrey. But all anyone will be talking about is the possibility of Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins facing his mentor Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski.
Hall of Fame Tipoff
Hall of Fame Tipoff |
Final |
Champ |
Massachusetts |
40% |
19% |
Notre Dame |
60% |
36% |
Providence |
46% |
20% |
Florida St. |
54% |
25% |
This might be the most important holiday tournament this year. All four of these teams project as bubble NCAA squads and the winner of this tournament will pick up two critical non-conference wins. I have Notre Dame as the favorite as I think the return of Jerian Grant is going to improve the Irish substantially.
Maui Invitational
Maui |
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Purdue |
28% |
4% |
1% |
Kansas St. |
72% |
19% |
9% |
Missouri |
9% |
3% |
1% |
Arizona |
91% |
75% |
57% |
Pittsburgh |
99% |
45% |
13% |
Chaminade |
1% |
0% |
0% |
BYU |
32% |
14% |
3% |
San Diego St. |
68% |
41% |
16% |
I’m looking forward to the contrast in styles between offensively dominant BYU and defensively dominant SDSU. All seven of the D1 teams in the field have the talent to finish in the Top 100. Missouri is probably the worst of these squads, as they must replace almost all of last year's top scorers, but they have some quality recruits who are capable of pulling an upset.
Legends Classic
Legends |
Final |
Champ |
Villanova |
61% |
44% |
VCU |
39% |
24% |
Michigan |
66% |
25% |
Oregon |
34% |
8% |
This looked like one of the best early season tournaments in the land, with four very talented teams. But the news that Oregon's Michael Chandler is injured and the news that JaQuan Lyle is ineligible makes the Ducks an underdog.
CBE Classic
CBE |
Final |
Champ |
Arizona St. |
28% |
7% |
Maryland |
72% |
32% |
Alabama |
27% |
12% |
Iowa St. |
73% |
49% |
Iowa St. vs Alabama presents another great contrast in styles. Fred Hoiberg has been an offensive genius for the Cyclones while Anthony Grant has been a dominant defensive coach (with the exception of last year.)
MGM Grand Main Event
MGM |
Final |
Champ |
Oklahoma St. |
87% |
47% |
Oregon St. |
13% |
2% |
Auburn |
44% |
21% |
Tulsa |
56% |
30% |
There are lots of new faces in this tournament. I'm looking forward to seeing how transfer Anthony Hickey fits in with Oklahoma St., how quickly new head coach Bruce Pearl can build Auburn into a winner, and how Tulsa adjust to new head coach Frank Haith.
Oregon St.’s roster is in terrible shape which makes Oklahoma St. the favorite even though they might not be an NCAA tournament team.
Cancun Challenge
Cancun Challenge |
Final |
Champ |
Virginia Tech |
35% |
16% |
Northern Iowa |
65% |
40% |
Miami OH |
30% |
9% |
Northwestern |
70% |
35% |
If the MVC is going to get two NCAA bids this year, Northern Iowa must win here. Chris Collins begins year two of the Northwestern rebuild while Buzz Williams begins year one of the Virginia Tech rebuild.