I still remember the first time I saw Kyrie Irving. Duke was playing a pretty good Marquette team with at least three future NBA players -- Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder -- in an early-season non-conference game. Under Buzz Williams, the Golden Eagles pride themselves on their defense; they went to the Sweet 16 that season. None of that mattered against Irving: he was playing on a whole different level. He could drain open three-pointers, blow by anyone who pressed him and see the entire floor.

That’s what makes the start of the college basketball season so exciting. We’ve seen Kobe Bryant and LeBron James play thousands of basketball games; at this point, we have a pretty good idea of what they are all about. So while the level of play in the NBA is much higher, you never know what you are going to get in the NCAA. You might just stumble upon the next big thing; then again, you might not.

I still remember the first time I saw Quincy Miller. Baylor was playing a non-conference game against what turned out to be a pretty good San Diego State team. Miller was the centerpiece of their offense, a smooth 6’10 small forward who could effortlessly drain step-back three-pointers and get into the lane. He had 20 points on 7-for-12 shooting in 25 minutes; the buckets were coming so easy, he probably could have went for 40. But, as the year went on, Perry Jones III came back from a suspension and the Bears offense shifted away from Miller, which seemingly took a toll on his confidence.

He might end up becoming a second round steal for the Nuggets, but he’s currently playing in the D-League, far away from the heights he was once projected to reach. The conventional wisdom is that college basketball games don’t “matter” until March. Tell that to anyone who played Kentucky last year, who knew they could have a career-defining performance in front of dozens of NBA scouts. Many front offices can get caught into the hype surrounding March Madness, but the smart ones start work on finding the next “market inefficiencies” in the months of November-February.

Since the NBA’s best teams are judged almost exclusively by their performances in the playoffs, the regular season is really about the rebuilding franchises, the ones trying to develop young players for the future. Yet, for the vast majority of them, what happens in the college basketball season will have an impact just as big, if not greater, than anything that happens on the professional level. The best way to build a title contender, especially in a smaller market, is piece-by-piece through the draft. That’s a function of properly scouting the best players in the NCAA and figuring out which ones fit with the core already in place.

The Cavaliers are a good example. With Kyrie Irving out for a month, any real chance of contending for the playoffs is over. Dion Waiters has been a pleasant surprise, but long-term, Cleveland still needs a frontcourt star to complement their backcourt of the future. That’s the whole ballgame: if Cleveland messes up their lottery pick this year, there aren’t going to many more chances to build a title contender around Irving.

Who should that player be? Right now, two weeks into the NCAA season, we really don’t know. While Anthony Davis had the inside track on the No. 1 overall pick from the moment he arrived in Lexington, none of the class of 2012 came into their freshman year with an overwhelming amount of hype. Shabazz Muhammad was the consensus No. 1 player, but since he isn’t an overwhelming athlete at 6’6 220, it’s way too soon to know whether he can live up to that.

Regardless, the first time you watch UCLA, your eyes will eventually start to drift from Shabazz to Kyle Anderson. I don’t know if he’s a good enough athlete, shooter or scorer, but Anderson is a legitimate PG at 6’9 235. In their loss to Georgetown, one of the season’s early surprises, he had seven rebounds, six assists and three steals, but also 0 points on 0-6 shooting. It was a very Rondo-esque performance, kind of stunning for a player of Anderson’s size.

In terms of a size-skill combination, there’s no one comparable to Baylor’s Isaiah Austin, the nephew of 11-year NBA veteran Ike Austin. The Bears first game this season was against Lehigh, a scrappy Patriot League team coming off a first round upset of Duke in last season's tournament, but lacking the personnel to match up with a 7’1 225 monster with a 7’5 wingspan. Austin scored 22 points on 10-for-12 shooting in only 17 minutes of action; he was out there draining three-pointers like it was nothing.

And as impressive as Austin’s performance was, perhaps the best debut came from Oklahoma State point guard Marcus Smart. The Cowboys were facing an absolutely loaded NC State team, with at least 4-5 future NBA players, in the championship game of a tournament in Puerto Rico. He was matched-up against Lorenzo Brown, a sure-fire future NBA PG at 6’5 185. Smart, a chiseled 6’4 200 athlete, undressed the All-ACC guard, with 20 points, seven rebounds, seven assists, four blocks and four steals. He was running point, volleyball spiking shots at the rim and draining heat-check 30-footers.

In and of themselves, none of these games necessarily foretell greatness. Maybe the freshman seasons of Austin, Anderson and Smart play out more like Quincy Miller’s than Kyrie Irving’s. That’s the beauty of college basketball: we really don’t know. Right now, I can sit here and make a lot of fairly easy predictions about the NBA season, but I couldn’t possibly tell you who is going to make the Final Four. It should be a wild ride; NBA fans who don’t follow along are going to be missing out.

While my preseason projections won’t be available until the end of October, I have cranked out the odds for the holiday tournaments based on my rankings. Today’s column looks at who is likely to win each early season tournament, and what storylines to keep an eye on.

Do not hesitate to print out the tournament brackets and follow along as they happen. It is extremely easy to get busy with the Thanksgiving holidays and miss some of the best games of the season. But if you print out these brackets and fill them in, you won’t miss the upsets. Just click on the handy links throughout this document to find the printable brackets.

Preseason NIT Printable Bracket

I’ve already expressed my doubts about Michigan and my faith in Pittsburgh. But Pitt’s second round opponent will be very dangerous. Both Lehigh (led by NCAA hero CJ McCollum) and Robert Morris (led by super-scorer Velton Jones) have the ability to knock off Pittsburgh. These teams have a real chance to win the Patriot League and Northeast Conference, and this is the type of game that can mean the difference between earning a 15 seed and a 13 seed come March.

2K Sports Classic Printable Bracket

OSU’s Jared Cunningham, Alabama’s JaMychal Green, Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, and Villanova’s Maalik Wayns are gone, and those players were not only their team’s leading scorers last season, they were the heart of their respective offenses. Which rebuilding team will forge a new identity first? Because Anthony Grant has become a dominant defensive coach, while Craig Robinson has not, Alabama is the favorite here.

Charleston Classic Printable Bracket

There are some big name conference schools here, but this tournament is a dream for fans of mid-major squads. Murray St. won’t be able to duplicate last year’s 31-2 record, but with superstar point-guard Isaiah Canaan returning, Murray St. should have enough to beat Auburn and St. John’s. In fact, they might even face the College of Charleston in the semifinals. This offseason Charleston added head coach Doug Wojcik, a veteran coach who hasn’t been able to get to the NCAA tournament, but a coach who has consistently built strong defensive teams. If Wojcik can get Charleston to play great defense this season, he has enough returning talent to make a run at an NCAA tournament bid. Andrew Lawrence is clearly Charleston’s best returning offensive player, but the real player to keep an eye on is Adjehi Baru. Baru was ranked 37^th in the nation out of high school and is one of the highest ranked recruits to ever attend Charleston. And while Baru was a nice complimentary player as a freshman last season, it will be very interesting to see if he can break out as a sophomore.

Of course the clear favorite here is Baylor. Baylor may have lost some key post players to graduation and the NBA, but they have plenty of incoming talent. This will be our first chance to see the highly acclaimed 7’1” freshman Isaiah Austin in action.

Puerto Rico Tipoff Printable Bracket

Oklahoma St.’s odds aren’t poor because Oklahoma St. is a bad team. The Cowboys add Top 10 freshman Marcus Smart alongside former Top 10 recruit LeBryan Nash. That one-two punch will make Oklahoma St. a likely NCAA tournament team this year. But the Cowboys have a terrible tournament draw.  First Oklahoma St. has to face Akron. Akron point guard Alex Abreu may be under-sized, but he’s an extremely talented player, and 7 foot center Zeke Marshall could have played for a number of BCS teams. And while the MAC hasn’t had multiple NCAA bids since 1999, Ohio and Akron are strong enough to break that trend.

Meanwhile Tennessee is a heavy favorite to be the second round opponent. Tennessee may have only finished 19-15 last year, but the Vols played substantially better after Jarnell Stokes joined the team mid-season. And with Trae Golden and Jeronne Maymon becoming efficient scorers for head coach Cuonzo Martin, a lot of people have taken notice. Florida head coach Billy Donovan has gone on the record to say that Tennessee is the team to beat in the SEC this season.

And if Oklahoma St. wins that game, they only have to face NC State in the final, the same NC State team that many people have labeled as the ACC favorite. So no, Oklahoma St. isn’t a bad team. But their path to a Puerto Rico tipoff title is brutal.

Coaches vs Cancer

If you get tired of the sloppy play by all the new players in November, please don’t miss Notre Dame vs St. Joseph’s in the first round of the Coaches vs Cancer tournament. Both teams return all five starters from last season and have plenty of offensive stars. I’m going to keep writing about the shot-blocking CJ Aiken, super-slasher Carl Jones, and the super-efficient Langston Galloway until St. Joe’s gets more love, but this four team field is wide open.

Notre Dame is the favorite, but I do have one question for Irish fans. Given Scott Martin’s middling efficiency numbers in his career, was it a good thing that the NCAA granted him an additional year of eligibility? Martin made just 26% of his threes and 40% of his twos last year, and while injuries may have contributed to that, it is clear he wasn’t an elite player last year.

Paradise Jam Printable Bracket

Despite a host of mid-major schools, this tournament looks very dull. Mercer and Iona might compete for the ASun and MAAC titles this year, but neither looks like a likely at-large bid.

And still Connecticut’s tournament odds are not great. First NCAA tournament sanctions led to a host of transfers this off-season. Then the Huskies lost Jim Calhoun to retirement. And as we’ve seen in recent seasons, UConn has been a different team when Calhoun is out. He’s a special coach who can elevate the level of his players, and he will not easily be replaced.

Steve Alford’s team might actually be a little better on offense this season. The team loses Drew Gordon at the forward position, but New Mexico also loses AJ Hardeman. And as great an offensive player as Gordon was, Hardeman was a black hole on offense. With Alex Kirk returning from injury to provide that shot-blocking presence in the paint, and all the returning talent at the guard spots, New Mexico deserves more preseason praise.

Hall of Fame Tip-Off Printable Bracket

Washington’s Abdul Gaddy has had an injury filled career, but with Tony Wroten leaving early for the draft, this is Gaddy’s team. The senior point-guard will have to integrate some new pieces throughout the Washington lineup. Seton Hall will have a number of new faces as well, including Georgia Tech transfer Brian Oliver and Southern Illinois transfer Gene Teague. Realistically, the winner of this game will probably be headed to the NIT, but a win against Ohio St. would be a fantastic notch on any NCAA resume. While Ohio St. is the clear favorite thanks to the efficient high volume shooter DeShaun Thomas, there are questions about how the Buckeyes offense will run without Jared Sullinger.

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Wow. Wow. Wow. A day like Friday requires a running diary:

11:40am ET: I’m reading various web blogs. The best comment: Thursday was March Monotony. We desperately need a better day of basketball.

12:10pm ET: The day tips off with #11 Texas vs #6 Cincinnati. If you had asked me to write a script for Texas vs Cincinnati based on what happened during the regular season, here is what I would have written. Cincinnati’s ball pressure will shock the Texas guards, the Texas freshmen will turn it over and fall behind. Eventually, because Texas has an efficient offense, the Longhorns will get back in the game. But since they’ve failed in almost every close game against a good team this year, Texas will come up short. The game followed the script almost perfectly.

1:00pm ET: I’m watching San Diego St. and NC State and wondering if anyone honestly believes SDSU is the favored team here. Yes the Aztecs beat California and Arizona early in the year. But by now we know that beating the Pac-12 was rather uninformative. Cal was crushed by USF in the First Four and Arizona fell to Bucknell in the NIT. If NC State wins, it won’t be an upset.

2:25pm ET: Last summer I was on the “free Richard Howell” bandwagon. Despite the fact that NC State was terrible at rebounding, and despite the fact that Howell was the best rebounder on the team, Sidney Lowe refused to play him. Thankfully Mark Gottfried discovered Howell’s talents, and the big man rewarded him by scoring 22 points on 10 of 12 shooting in his first NCAA tournament game. But a funny thing happened in this game. Even though Howell played well, NC State went on a run and broke the game open when Howell went to the bench with his 4^th foul. Can a player be the star of the game if he isn’t on the floor for the game-deciding run?

3:25pm ET: Alabama has the ball down 1 in the final seconds against Creighton. I have all sorts of thoughts running through my head. Alabama’s offense has been horrible all year. Creighton’s defense has been horrible all year. Who will win? But the end-game sequence is butchered by some bizarre timeouts, and Alabama doesn’t even get a clean look at the basket.

3:29pm ET: I’m sick of that logistics commercial about the Duke/Kentucky pass. In fact, I’m sick of all the logistics commercials.

3:30pm ET: I am not shocked Virginia lost. When Assane Sene was declared ineligible by Tony Bennett, the season was over. I am shocked that Mike Davis was fired by UAB. He may have only made the NCAA tournament once, but he had UAB in the top 3 of CUSA on numerous occasions.

3:45pm ET: Andrew Nicholson is playing like the best player on the floor and St. Bonaventure has an early lead on Florida St. How many people have Florida St. going to the Final Four?

4:05pm ET: Remember when Florida played Kentucky during the regular season, and the Gators could barely get their three point shots off cleanly, let alone make those shots? Well, that was Belmont vs Georgetown. Belmont was a trendy upset pick based on their great perimeter shooting, but with Georgetown often fielding a lineup with four player 6’8” or taller, Belmont had multiple times when they couldn’t even get a clean look. Belmont was smart enough to keep passing, and they sometimes got clean looks in the chaos. But more often than not the extra passes led to a Belmont turnover. Belmont eventually settled into cross-court passes to try to get open threes, but Greg Whittington even blocked one of those threes late in the game. It turns out the way you stop a great three point shooting team is with size. Who knew it was that simple?

Offensively, Georgetown broke the game open with some nice backdoor cuts on passes from Nate Lubick in the post. For some reason, Belmont’s defensive scheme allowed Georgetown to feed its post players at will. Obviously Belmont was not afraid of Lubick beating them one-on-one, but when you allow a team to work inside-out, the offense almost always wins.

5:55pm ET: Crud, Florida St. just held off St. Bonaventure and again the losing team can’t get off a decent shot at the end.  Today has been better, but it isn’t quite memorable yet.

6:20pm ET: Well, Norfolk St. is hanging tough with Missouri so at least I can watch that. I’ve shown splits at various times this year and the pattern is clear. Missouri plays to the level of their competition. They’ve played fantastic basketball against elite teams, and played “just good enough” against mediocre teams. But this feels like a fluke. Missouri is going to pull away late.

6:35pm ET: I’m starting to think Norfolk St. has a real chance to win when they hit a three to take a four point lead in the final four minutes. Then Marcus Denmon takes an utterly mind-boggling turnaround three pointer. Where did that shot come from? Now I’m really starting to think Norfolk St. has a chance.

6:45pm ET: Kyle O’Quinn tips the ball up in the air on a FT miss, and eventually ties up a Missouri player, giving Norfolk St. the possession arrow. The ball was hopping up in the air so long, I was wondering if time might expire on a FT miss.

6:50pm ET: Missouri is down two in the final seconds. St. John’s ran a play earlier this year against Cincinnati that allowed them to score a floater in the lane in less than 2 seconds. Missouri runs essentially the same play, but they start it further from the basket, and Phil Pressey puts up a three pointer.

6:51pm ET: The Missouri mascot covers his eyes on the sidelines. The shot misses. Norfolk St. wins. A 15-seed has defeated a 2-seed.

6:55pm ET: Kyle O’Quinn, “If it wasn’t for the scholarship offer from Norfolk St., I don’t know where I would be today. I had to pay those coaches back.”

7:00pm ET: Greg Gumbel tries to introduce the evening’s slate of games on CBS. The rest of the crew treats him like he is Perd Hapley from NBC’s Parks and Recreation. “You want to talk about the upcoming games?! Don't you want to talk about Missouri losing to Norfolk St?” Gumbel, “So is Duke going to beat Lehigh?” Greg Anthony, “No, Duke isn’t going to beat Lehigh…”

7:02pm ET: Charles Barkley, “That interview that Kyle O’Quinn gave was fantastic. That is what college basketball is all about.”

7:10pm ET: My mom calls.  “Thank goodness Florida St. came back to win.  I have them going to the Final Four.” Me, “Did you see Missouri lost?”  Her, “No!!!!!”

7:30pm ET: In one of the pregame shows, Seth Davis was asked about picking South Dakota St. and Belmont to pull upsets this week. Davis is shown with a SDSU wall-sticker and a Belmont wall-sticker. Davis, “Why don’t you show the video where I picked Norfolk St. to win?” Others, “Because it doesn’t exist."

8:35pm ET: Duke leads by 2 points at half-time, but there is something wrong with the net and they are restringing it on one end of the court. Mike Krzyzewski has this extremely painful expression on his face. The last thing he wants to do is stand here any longer with Lehigh within two points.

8:40pm ET: Four games are coming down to the wire simultaneously. My ability to process information is now seriously curtailed. Tarik Black fouls out for Memphis. That looks like it is going to hurt. If you’ve followed Memphis this year, you know they don’t have a lot of depth inside, and they just aren’t the same team with Black on the bench.

8:45pm ET: Duke’s Seth Curry gets called for an intentional foul after turning the ball over. It looked to me like he made a legitimate play on the ball. This is not Duke’s day.

9:10pm ET: St. Louis’ Kwamain Mitchell is on fire. And St. Louis holds off Memphis.

9:35pm ET: Two years after DJ Cooper led Ohio to an upset over Georgetown, he is doing it again. But this time Ohio runs into a scoring drought late in the game. Michigan is down three points and gets at least four attempts at a game-tying three. A week ago against Minnesota, John Beilein drew up a play that got Evan Smotrycz a wide-open three from deep that tied the game and sent it into OT. This time Beilein doesn’t call timeout and he lets his players try to win it on their own. Trey Burke gets a switch and is matched up with an Ohio forward. Burke is trying desperately to dribble into the lane, but he can’t get passed the defender. Ohio holds on for the upset.

9:35pm ET: Lehigh beats full court pressure for a wide open lay-up and 7 point lead. Is it possible, is a second 2-seed going to fall today?

9:45pm ET: Despite pulling within 3 points with 1 second left, Duke falls. Jim Nance is in shock. Every year he gets assigned to the equivalent of the Greensboro regional and has to sit through Duke and North Carolina winning easily in the first round. This year Duke fell. Of course, most college basketball experts believed Duke was going to lose early in the tournament. But it is still shocking to see it happen this early.

9:50pm ET: St. Mary’s has come back from 11 points down to take the lead on Purdue. Purdue has been a team that has blown leads this year. Purdue held a big lead against Xavier and lost. They held a big lead against Butler and lost. So Boilermaker fans have to be pulling their hair out.

Purdue is down one with a chance to take the lead, but they turn it over. Then the Gaels get called for a travel on the baseline. (You can only run the baseline after made baskets.) Lewis Jackson draws a foul and heads to the line with a chance to re-take the lead. Two years ago Jackson was a 44% free throw shooter, but he’s improved and he makes both free throws when it matters most. St. Mary’s airballs a three pointer and within moments, Purdue has won the game.

10pm ET: My brain is in shock. This is why people love the NCAA tournament.

11:30pm ET: South Florida is going to upset Temple thanks to another crazy defensive effort, but at this point the 12-5 upset doesn’t register with me. But I do notice that North Carolina’s road to the Elite Eight is looking very easy.

12:15am ET: Tu Holloway drives the lane and hits a fade-away jumper to give Xavier a late lead. But moments later, Notre Dame was at the line with a one-and-one and a chance to tie the game. And just one day after the NCAA clarified the rule about lane violations, it happens again. One of the Notre Dame guards starts towards the basket before the ball hit the rim, and the refs call the lane violation. The ball (and game) is awarded to Xavier.

12:16pm ET: Scott Martin is shown on the sideline holding back tears. I have to say, the video production teams are all over the crying players this year. I have seen at least 15 shots of players with towels on their heads or their jerseys over their face, and it is only Day 2.

Wow.

Expected Wins (Excluding Opening Round)

Own: If you lose, your expected wins go to zero.  If you win, your expected wins go up.

Other: Other team’s outcomes can also impact your expected wins.

Marg: The margin of victory for all tournament teams can impact your expected wins. This essentially reflects the daily change in the Pomeroy Rankings.

Obviously the losses by Duke and Missouri freed up a lot of wins for other teams in the field.

Lehigh, Norfolk St., and Ohio significantly improved their expected number of wins by advancing. Michigan St.’s win was mostly expected, so they did not improve their expectation much based on their “Own” win.

But the “Other” results helped.  Michigan St., Marquette, and Florida, all saw a big jump in their expectation based on Missouri’s loss.  And Baylor and Xavier benefited from Duke’s loss, but Duke wasn’t a terribly strong team this year, so that effect is smaller.

Florida’s huge margin-of-victory was a net benefit for the Gators, and it also helped Kentucky’s profile even though the Wildcats did not play.  As a result, Kentucky is once again the tournament favorite.