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Nerlens Noel, Isaiah Austin, And A Quick Look At How The Top 80 Recruits Have Fared

The game of the weekend featured Baylor ending Kentucky’s 55-game home winning streak. I’ve often described Scott Drew as an excellent recruiter, but without the in-season coaching ability of John Calipari. But for at least one afternoon, Scott Drew’s club ended up on top.

A couple of things fascinated me about the game.

First, John Calipari had Kyle Wiltjer on the bench for a long stretch in the second half. And he really had no choice. Wiltjer finished the day 1-for-11 from the floor, and he doesn’t have the defensive ability to stay in the game if his shot isn’t falling. Wiltjer has to find ways to provide value to his team other than just knocking down threes if he is going to be a true leader this season.

Second, I continued to be impressed with the all-around game of Baylor’s Isaiah Austin. I wish he would settle for a few less outside shots, but what I love about Austin is how he always looks extremely focused when on the floor. Even if he commits a turnover or takes a dumb shot, Austin doesn’t ever appear to get rattled.

Of course it is easy to describe an intangible like “quiet confidence” when a player is winning. And with Kentucky losing, it is easy to attack Nerlens Noel’s complete lack of an offensive game. But had Kentucky rallied to win, we’d instead be talking about all the little things Noel did to help his team win on Saturday. Noel had 16 rebounds and 6 steals in Kentucky’s loss, and Kentucky needed those defensive stops in a game where they shot so poorly. Watching so many freshmen play prominent roles made me want to do a quick update of how all the top recruits have fared this season. Here is a summary of the RSCI Top 80.  * = injured or ineligible for part of the season

 

Player

Team

PPG

Pct Min

Pct Poss

ORtg

DR%

Ast%

1

Shabazz Muhammad

UCLA

16.0

42.4*

28.0

105.2

11.1

5.9

2

Nerlens Noel

Kentucky

11.4

78.5

21.1

110.2

21.1

14.8

3

Kyle Anderson

UCLA

6.6

69.5

20.4

87.9

19.4

20.6

4

Isaiah Austin

Baylor

13.7

64.2

22.1

107.9

18.2

6.4

5

Steven Adams

Pittsburgh

6.0

48.0

17.7

110.6

14.8

3.4

6

Anthony Bennett

UNLV

18.8

66.6

25.5

130.9

13.6

9.6

7

Kaleb Tarczewski

Arizona

6.2

51.5

17.6

109.0

25.8

6.6

8

Alex Poythress

Kentucky

15.4

73.9

22.7

114.9

13.7

3.9

9

Marcus Smart

Okl. State

14.5

85.7

28.0

103.4

16.4

35.3

10

Archie Goodwin

Kentucky

16.4

85.7

27.3

105.0

14.0

24.2

Kentucky has had a problem with rebounding this year, but don’t blame Nerlens Noel. He needs some help from Willie-Cauley Stein and Kyle Wiltjer who are very poor defensive rebounders for their size.

If Kaleb Tarczewski and Steven Adams aren’t earning major minutes at this point in the season, it is hard to envisioning them becoming full scale stars later. When conference play rolls around, coaches tend to be less patient with their freshmen. Thus in many ways, percentage of minutes can be the most important stat this time of year.

Efficiency is also important, and Kyle Anderson’s 87.9 ORtg is terrible for an elite recruit. Point guards can struggle more than other players to adapt to the college game and Anderson was considered to have point guard skills out of high school. So perhaps Anderson’s struggles aren’t a complete surprise. On the other hand, Archie Goodwin and Marcus Smart weren’t really point guards in high school and they have adapted to the position. Goodwin’s turnover numbers are far too high, but he’s set up his teammates passably while setting up his own shot a lot. And Marcus Smart has made a tremendous transition to playing the point-guard position at the college level. Smart’s assist rate is much better than many players regarded as better passers out of high school.

I really think the problem with Anderson is that Ben Howland hasn’t figured out how to use him. Lots of coaches from Rick Pitino to John Thompson III have been able to feature great lanky passers, by positioning them at the high post and letting them see the whole floor. Anderson still has the potential to be that type of player, even if he has struggled early.

 

Player

Team

PPG

Pct Min

Pct Poss

ORtg

DR%

Ast%

11

Grant Jerrett

Arizona

6.6

47.0

16.2

126.9

17.2

9.2

12

Rasheed Sulaimon

Duke

12.9

80.0

20.1

108.2

10.5

13.4

13

Ricardo Ledo

Providence

 

*

       

14

Cameron Ridley

Texas

5.1

44.2

22.3

72.9

17.1

0

15

Brandon Ashley

Arizona

11.0

56.5

22.8

122.5

25.5

6.3

16

Gary Harris

Mich. St.

11.8

44.6*

21.7

116.1

7.0

3.1

17

Rodney Purvis

NC State

10.0

73.3

17.3

106.8

5.8

9.1

18

DaJuan Coleman

Syracuse

5.8

37.0

24.1

85.4

25.4

2.3

19

Sam Dekker

Wisconsin

10.5

51.2

23.1

125.6

5.9

16.4

20

Kris Dunn

Providence

 

*

        

Grant Jerrett and Sam Dekker are the only players in the Top 20 who are not starting. Ricardo Ledo is ineligible. And Kris Dunn and Gary Harris are injured.

We start to see the typical drop-off when we get to recruits in the 11-20 range. DaJuan Coleman still has the profile of a player who will be a star in a future season, but right now he is having trouble earning playing time behind other quality big men on Syracuse’s roster. Meanwhile Cameron Ridley has been extremely disappointing for Texas. Certainly it hurts not to have Myck Kabongo eligible, but Kabongo’s absence doesn’t explain why a player like Ridley can be so passive against a team like Chaminade as he was in the Maui Invitational loss. The only good thing I can say about Ridley is that he has 19 blocks already, which is more than any other player in the Top 50 except Nerlens Noel.

Only Rasheed Sulaimon has become an undisputed crunch time star for his team. And Sulaimon’s efficiency is even more impressive when you look at Duke’s strength of schedule so far. Rodney Purvis has also played major minutes, but he is deferring a lot to his teammates at this point.

 

Player

Team

PPG

Pct Min

Pct Poss

ORtg

DR%

Ast%

21

Amile Jefferson

Duke

2.9

21.8

18.0

109.7

8.5

5.3

22

Devonte Pollard

Alabama

5.0

56.7

17.2

86.0

10.3

7.9

23

Glenn Robinson III

Michigan

12.3

79.2

18.6

131.3

14.8

7.5

24

Tony Parker

UCLA

3.3

13.2

18.5

117.1

13.7

4.6

25

Kevin "Yogi" Ferrell

Indiana

5.6

60.6

18.1

106.9

9.8

28.6

26

Mitch McGary

Michigan

5.0

35.7

20.3

117.4

26.4

3.4

27

T.J. Warren

NC State

15.3

69.5

19.6

132.4

8.5

3.5

28

Marcus Paige

North Carolina

7.9

61.7

20.2

87.7

7.8

19.6

29

Danuel House

Houston

11.3

54.6

26.4

100.8

12.6

8.1

30

Robert Carter

Georgia Tech

7.8

60.8

21.2

95.2

19.2

7.3

Glenn Robinson has been shockingly efficient at this point in the season, well above many of his peers on this list. But none of the players listed here are going to quite be in the national player of the year discussion because they are starting to become more passive offensive players. (I.e. the percentage of possessions used is now often below 20%) Only Danuel House is using a large number of possessions at this point in the rankings, and House plays for a Houston team that is in the process of upgrading its talent level in anticipation of joining the Big East.

This preseason I wrote how Marcus Paige would have some growing pains and be inconsistent this year, and the response I got was that Roy Williams had a ton of confidence in Paige and that I was being un-necessarily pessimistic. So far, with an 87.7 ORtg, neither Paige nor the Tar Heels are off to a great start. Paige has better days ahead, but North Carolina is also going to have a few more baffling losses before the season is over.

I was worried that Yogi Ferrell could have a similar negative impact on the Hoosiers because freshmen are often inconsistent. But Ferrell has thrived because he has worked within the offense. Instead of hogging the ball and needing to create shots, Ferrell has let his teammates work their isolation stuff, and provided key drives and dishes when needed. Ferrell has been happy to fill a role on the Hoosiers, and he has been everything Indiana needed.

Finally, Tony Parker’s minutes this year have been a joke, but with Josh Smith transferring, Parker at least has a chance of cracking the UCLA rotation now.

 

Player

Team

PPG

Pct Min

Pct Poss

ORtg

DR%

Ast%

31

Perry Ellis

Kansas

6.4

40.0

20.8

115.6

14.6

8.8

32

Ricardo Gathers

Baylor

5.6

41.0

20.0

101.5

15.5

1.5

33

Winston Shepard

San Diego State

3.7

24.1

24.2

49.2

10.1

6.3

34

Shaquille Cleare

Maryland

5.3

31.7

16.6

129.0

6.3

0

35

Shaq Goodwin

Memphis

7.5

50.0

21.7

109.4

16.5

9

36

Katin Reinhardt

UNLV

11.3

73.3

16.7

116.5

5.1

20

37

D. Smith-Rivera

Georgetown

5.8

44.0

15.6

108.8

4.2

5.5

38

Willie Cauley

Kentucky

7.4

48.2

20.2

103.5

14.8

7

39

Omar Calhoun

Connecticut

10.9

75.8

19.8

103.9

8.8

8.4

40

Brice Johnson

North Carolina

9.1

35.0

22.1

119.9

24.3

3.4

41

Jerami Grant

Syracuse

2.0

22.0

9.8

119.2

11.2

7.1

42

Adam Woodbury

Iowa

6.6

42.8

18.1

118.5

17.6

6.5

43

Tyler Lewis

NC State

2.7

36.2

16.9

83.6

10.6

20

44

Jeremy Hollowell

Indiana

6.4

35.3

26.1

92.7

12.4

1.5

45

Daniel Ochefu

Villanova

3.1

35.1

14.0

83.3

21.9

2.2

46

Cam Biedscheid

Notre Dame

8.0

42.4

21.9

113.7

9.1

16.1

47

Gabe York

Arizona

3.0

18.0

16.2

147.3

6.4

26.2

48

Justin Anderson

Virginia

6.1

52.8

21.8

100.8

9.8

23.2

49

Semaj Christon

Xavier

16.0

73.2

29.6

111.7

9.3

37.8

50

Hanner Perea

Indiana

 

*

        

Notice how often a lack of playing time plagues players at this point in the rankings. I expected and still expect big things out of Kansas’ Perry Ellis and Iowa’s Adam Woodbury, but their coaches have only given them a taste of playing time at this point. The result is that some guys at this point in the rankings become unmitigated gunners. Hey Indiana’s Jeremy Hollowell, no matter how good you think you are, when the game with North Carolina was close late in the first half, Indiana didn’t want you bombing threes. They wanted Jordan Hulls bombing threes.

Xavier has played much better than many of us anticipated this season, and freshman Semaj Christon deserves a lot of that credit. Christon has out-played point-guards like Marcus Paige and realistically he’s been much more important than even Yogi Ferrell given his role in the offense. Christon is using nearly 30% of his team’s possessions, scoring at a prolific clip, and setting up his teammates without a rash of turnovers.

 

Player

Team

PPG

Pct Min

Pct Poss

ORtg

DR%

Ast%

51

Josh Scott

Colorado

13.1

68.6

22.8

118.3

11.4

3.3

52

Andrew White

Kansas

2.6

11.0

22.6

101.3

26.4

5.8

53

Robert Upshaw

Fresno State

4.7

17.5

24.8

80.4

20.1

7.5

54

Braxton Ogbueze

Florida

1.7

20.0

17.2

70.7

18.6

3.8

55

Ryan Arcidiacono

Villanova

12.9

84.8

23.1

95.8

10.5

28.2

56

Dominic Artis

Oregon

10.2

64.6

21.8

100.9

9.1

23.4

57

J.P. Tokoto

North Carolina

3.4

24.3

20.9

89.6

12.4

9.5

58

Joel James

North Carolina

4.0

40.3

12.6

111.1

18.0

4.2

59

Jordan Adams

UCLA

17.8

62.4

26.1

123.0

12.0

8.3

60

Montay Brandon

Florida State

6.0

58.2

17.1

93.5

9.2

15.5

61

Elijah Macon

   

*

       

62

Prince Ibeh

Texas

1.6

30.8

12.0

63.9

14.9

2.3

63

James Robinson

Pittsburgh

7.2

74.4

14.4

120.6

9.0

21

64

Danrad Knowles

   

*

       

65

J-Mychal Reese

Texas A&M

6.6

74.6

17.7

89.1

9.5

18.5

66

L.J. Rose

Baylor

1.0

18.2

19.2

54.5

7.8

14.9

67

Xavier Johnson

Colorado

6.9

48.2

20.2

94.4

14.0

4.5

68

Jake Layman

Maryland

2.0

33.9

13.7

72.8

10.9

10.2

69

Christopher Obekpa

St. John's

4.6

59.3

13.7

96.9

11.1

9.3

70

Jordan Price

Auburn

5.3

38.9

21.9

84.6

5.4

14.2

71

Georges Niang

Iowa State

10.1

52.1

19.9

126.4

15.8

15.4

72

Torian Graham

   

*

       

73

Rosco Allen

Stanford

3.1

21.6

23.7

79.5

18.7

7.9

74

Evan Nolte

Virginia

6.4

48.1

15.3

115.6

8.4

16.2

75

A.J. Hammons

Purdue

8.6

47.7

23.8

102.2

19.4

8.2

76

Codi Miller-McIntyre

Wake Forest

9.0

75.0

16.5

103.9

7.5

17.3

77

Terry Rozier

   

*

       

78

Nik Stauskas

Michigan

14.3

69.2

15.9

158.3

11.9

3.5

79

Jakarr Sampson

St. John's

12.5

75.3

22.2

105.4

16.7

8.5

80

Javan Felix

Texas

7.1

84.9

20.6

82.7

10.0

39.6

Most of Christopher Opekpa’s stats are pretty pedestrian, but not his block rate. Opekpa has 35 blocks at this point in the season, easily out-distancing any of the other freshmen in today’s column.

Nik Stauskas has been unbelievably efficient at this point and he is playing major minutes to boot. Some people expected Michigan to be a Top 10 team, but did they really expect Stauskas to outperform his peer level players by this much? His efficiency is due in large part to his teammates, and his shot-selection. But his performance is still notable. Stauskas has the most threes of anyone mentioned in this column (18 made) beating even UCLA’s super-aggressive shooter Jordan Adams.

Also give Adams credit. He’s shooting 26% of the time while maintaining a solid ORtg. Kyle Anderson may have been the third rated recruit for UCLA, but Adams has actually played like one.

The Many Facets & Unpredictability Of March Madness

The older I get, the more I see that one of the things I love most about sports is the variety of it, the diversity of it and the CHARACTERS. Men’s tennis is at its best in many years because, for the first time in a long time, the top three or four players all have wildly different styles. The Tim Tebow story was fun on so many levels, but one of those levels was that he was just SO DIFFERENT in how he played — I’d say we are entering a great time for quarterbacks, because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning and Drew Brees and Michael Vick and Cam Newton and Tebow and others are not really alike at all.

-- Joe Posnanski

As a basketball fan, I’ve never understood the division that exists between fans of the NBA and the NCAA. While the NBA has the best basketball players in the world, March Madness is compelling in its own right and as entertaining as anything that happens on the professional level.

In the NBA, the owners of the 30 franchises consider turning a profit and getting an equal shot at the top players a right, regardless of how well (or how poorly) they run their organization and the respective size of their fan-bases. Since every losing team is a few ping pong balls from the rights to a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard, personnel determines scheme in the NBA.

In contrast, the vast majority of the 344 Division I programs in college basketball have little chance of ever receiving a commitment from a McDonald’s All-American. But instead of petulantly trying to sabotage the sport in a misguided effort to legislate fairness, schools try many creative ways of leveraging the talents of the players they can recruit. As a result, scheme determines personnel in the NCAA.

At Syracuse, Jim Boeheim has made a Hall of Fame career out of running a contrarian scheme, in his case an aggressive 2-3 zone. The Orange traditionally have rosters full of “1.5’s”, 6’3+ combo guards lacking the quickness to defend elite PG’s and the size to defend SG’s, and “3.5’s”, 6’8+ combo forwards lacking the quickness to defend elite SF’s and the size to defend PF’s. However, because Syracuse never plays man defense, the athletic deficiencies of their players are minimized.

So while nearly every NBA team runs a fairly similar system of isolations, pick-and-rolls and man defense, an incredibly diverse array of styles can be found in the college game. On one end of the spectrum, teams like Missouri play four guards and pressure the ball 94 feet for 48 minutes, on the other, teams like Wisconsin run a deliberate motion offense, trying to minimize the number of possessions and shoot at the very end of the shot-clock.

In the NBA, the players are too good for the “40 Minutes of Hell” system (which Mike Anderson has brought to Missouri and Arkansas in the last few years) to be successful. Like Mike Leach’s bizarre pass-happy offense in college football, Anderson’s system, which he learned as a member of Nolan Richardson’s staff in Arkansas in the 1990’s, has philosophical holes that professional athletes can exploit. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make them any less entertaining on the collegiate level.

And with 68 teams set to compete in the NCAA Tournament, there are a lot more surprises in the college game. Even programs ranked in the top-15 like Murray State have barely been on national TV this season.

We have a pretty good idea of how teams like the Pacers and the 76ers match up with the top of the Eastern Conference but not whether an undersized Murray State squad can handle the size of an elite team from a Power Six conference. It’s an open question how Isaiah Canaan’s speed and athleticism translates outside of the Ohio Valley Conference. Non-conference play in college basketball generally ends in late December, so it’s almost impossible to gauge how younger teams like Texas, Washington and Tennessee who have found their groove in the last two months will fare in March.

In the NBA, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City aren’t three of the final four teams left in the playoffs. In the NCAA, as many as two dozen teams have a legitimate shot at making a run at the Final Four.

Of course, in terms of entertainment, none of this makes the NCAA necessarily better or worse than the NBA, just different. But, as Posnanski writes, there’s something to be said for the concept of “different” in the modern sports world. Basketball fans of all stripes should enjoy March Madness; the NBA will still be here in a few weeks.

Colleges On NBA Rosters

With the NBA season starting on Sunday, and with most college programs off this weekend, this is a perfect time to look at which college programs have produced the most pros. Using opening day rosters on NBA.com, the first table shows the number of alumni that hail from the schools in each conference. I also list the number of international players (without any US college experience) and the number of high school players that went straight to the pros. I also compare these numbers to opening day last season.

Players on Opening Day Rosters

Conference

This Year

Last Year

ACC

61

56

Pac-12

50

48

International (with no US College)

48

59

Big East

46

54

SEC

45

40

Big 12

43

41

High School

31

31

Big 10

27

29

A10

13

11

CUSA

9

12

MWC

9

10

WAC

8

9

WCC

6

5

CAA

5

5

Sun Belt

4

5

Horizon

4

2

MVC

3

3

Southern

3

2

Other

14

14

Players per Team

14.3

14.5

A few notes: 

- There was only one change in the “high school to pro” players on rosters from last year to this year. J.R. Smith is stuck over in China and Jeremy Tyler is on an opening day roster this season.

- The number of international players in the NBA has declined this off-season. I haven’t done a full investigation, but I suspect international players were more likely to sign with foreign clubs during the lockout.

- There were some conferences to gain from the decline in the number of international players. In particular, the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 now have more alumni in the NBA. The Big 12’s increase in alumni is impressive when you consider the league lost two teams this off-season.  Of course, when you remember the league lost Colorado and Nebraska, maybe it is obvious why that didn’t matter much.

- The Southern Conference now has three players in the NBA. Charleston’s Andrew Goudelock (now playing for the Lakers) doesn’t have nearly the expectations of Davidson’s Stephen Curry or Western Carolina’s Kevin Martin, but he was a fabulous scorer in college.

- I know I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m shocked there aren’t more MAC players in the NBA. This league once generated players like Gary Trent and Wally Szczerbiak, but not anymore. The SWAC actually has more players in the NBA than the MAC right now at two to one.

- Overall, there were seven fewer players on opening day rosters this year, dropping the average opening day roster from 14.5 players to 14.3 players. 

Here is a team by team look at the player’s former colleges: 

Players on Opening Day Rosters

College Team

This Year

Last Year

Duke

16

13

Kentucky

15

13

UCLA

15

14

Texas

13

10

Kansas

12

12

North Carolina

12

12

Connecticut

11

11

Florida

10

9

Arizona

10

10

Georgia Tech

7

7

Wake Forest

7

8

LSU

6

7

USC

6

5

Ohio St.

6

7

Stanford

5

6

Florida St.

5

4

Marquette

5

4

Syracuse

5

7

Purdue

5

3

Georgia

4

0

Washington

4

5

Oklahoma St.

4

4

Boston College

4

2

Maryland

4

4

Louisville

4

4

Memphis

4

7

Nevada

4

4

Alabama

3

4

Arkansas

3

3

Missouri

3

2

Georgetown

3

4

Notre Dame

3

3

Pittsburgh

3

3

Villanova

3

4

Indiana

3

3

Michigan

3

3

Michigan St.

3

6

Wisconsin

3

1

Xavier

3

4

UNLV

3

4

Gonzaga

3

2

Tennessee, Arizona St., California, Colorado, Utah, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas St., Miami (FL), NC State, Providence, Cincinnati, Illinois, UMass, St. Joe's, UTEP, New Mexico, Fresno St., VCU, Butler, Western Kentucky, and Creighton also each had two player on the opening rosters this year.

If you had to define college basketball’s most prestigious programs right now, having 10 players in the NBA seems like a nice cut-off.  You’d miss Syracuse and a number of successful Big Ten programs, but the teams at the top of this list clearly have a ton of college basketball tradition.

Duke had a ridiculous 16 players on opening day NBA rosters this season. From the “wait he’s still playing in the NBA” Grant Hill to the newcomer Kyrie Irving, those 16 players are spread out between 13 different teams:

Gerald Henderson

Charlotte

Corey Maggette

Charlotte

Carlos Boozer

Chicago

Luol Deng

Chicago

Kyrie Irving

Cleveland

Dahntay Jones

Indiana

Josh McRoberts

LA Lakers

Shane Battier

Miami

Mike Dunleavy

Milwaukee

Shelden Williams

New Jersey

Lance Thomas

New Orleans

Chris Duhon

Orlando

J.J. Redick

Orlando

Elton Brand

Philadelphia

Grant Hill

Phoenix

Nolan Smith

Portland

So for everyone that says Mike Krzyzewski has started recruiting 4-year college players and is ignoring NBA level talent, that is not completely true. Personally, I’d still take the all-Texas squad (because of Kevin Durant), but Kentucky has a ton of players who have superstar potential, and Connecticut might have the most balanced NBA team.

Counting All-WAC First Team Selections

Between the 00-01 and 09-10 seasons, there have been 50 players named to the WAC All-Conference First Team.

 

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