In-season improvements are common for freshmen. After all, freshmen make more dumb decisions early in the year, so they have more room for improvement. And as Harrison Barnes showed last year, by getting in a rhythm and taking fewer questionable shots, a freshman can improve dramatically between November and March.
That also means that teams that play a lot of freshmen are the most likely to improve as the season goes on. Last year, we had hard evidence as Memphis, Michigan, St. Joseph’s, and Kentucky were all substantially better in March than they were in January.
But who are the young teams this season? You might think you know the answer if you read the preseason magazines and saw everyone’s returning minutes. But minutes lost are not a perfect predictor of freshmen playing time. San Diego State and Rhode Island both lost 69-71% of their minutes this off-season. But while Rhode Island has started over with a new group of young players, San Diego State has chosen to fill the lineup with transfers and bench players. In fact, the Aztecs aren’t giving any playing time to freshmen.
Team |
Conf |
Pct Min Fresh |
Pct Poss Fresh |
SDSU |
MWC |
0% |
0% |
Rhode Island |
A10 |
44% |
41% |
And that maturity has mattered a lot to the teams’ performances. While Rhode Island has struggled to a 1-10 start, San Diego St. has beaten Arizona and California. The teams with the most and fewest freshmen minutes are not always who you expect.
Most Minutes to Freshmen
(Playing in a Top 11 Conference or Pomeroy Top 50)
Team |
Conf |
Pct Min Fresh |
Pct Poss Fresh |
Virginia Tech |
ACC |
35% |
33% |
Fordham |
A10 |
36% |
40% |
Portland |
WCC |
36% |
33% |
SMU |
CUSA |
36% |
39% |
Georgetown |
BE |
36% |
30% |
Rice |
CUSA |
38% |
37% |
Arkansas |
SEC |
39% |
44% |
Villanova |
BE |
40% |
33% |
Houston |
CUSA |
42% |
41% |
Texas Tech |
B12 |
43% |
46% |
Rhode Island |
A10 |
44% |
41% |
San Diego |
WCC |
44% |
44% |
Alabama |
SEC |
44% |
37% |
Rutgers |
BE |
47% |
49% |
UTEP |
CUSA |
49% |
47% |
Kentucky |
SEC |
53% |
54% |
West Virginia |
BE |
53% |
42% |
St. John's |
BE |
61% |
61% |
Texas |
B12 |
61% |
62% |
Boston College |
ACC |
65% |
70% |
D1 Average |
|
19% |
18% |
- It may be a bit of a surprise to see Virginia Tech's Seth Greenberg play such a young team. He normally likes tight, experienced lineups. But Dorien Finney-Smith, Robert Brown, and CJ Barksdale are too good to bench. This is easily one of Greenberg’s best recruiting classes.
- Percentage of minutes usually matches percentage of possession’s used, but not always. While freshmen Otto Porter, Greg Whittington, and Jabril Trawick are playing a lot of minutes for Georgetown, the Hoyas’ veterans Hollis Thompson and Jason Clark get the majority of the shots.
- Texas Tech is terrible, but freshman Jordan Tolbert is the real deal.
- Alabama’s inability to make three-pointers and score against a zone defense is really holding the team back from becoming an elite team. Freshmen Levi Randolph, Trevor Lacey, Rodney Cooper, and Charles Hankerson have all missed a lot of open perimeter shots at this point in the season. But if the team can find other ways to score against zone defense, the Crimson Tide can still be great. And if one of these young players develops a jump shot, look out.
- I think Mike Rice is doing a fabulous job, but if you expect Rutgers to be a sleeper in the Big East, be aware how young his team is this year. They’ll be better eventually (especially after Kadeem Jack returns), but it is hard to win with this many freshmen in the lineup and no veteran stars.
- Yes, Kentucky has the best recruits, but could anyone other than John Calipari beat Kansas and North Carolina while working that many freshmen into the lineup?
- West Virginia is exceedingly young, but the formula seems to be working for them. Notice how the freshmen get 53% of the minutes, but only 42% of the possessions? This team is staying competitive by feeding the ball to Kevin Jones and watching Truck Bryant do his thing.
- Texas has been playing a weaker schedule in order to get its freshmen more confidence, but they were not ready to play on the road, looking outmatched against North Carolina on Tuesday. And Texas is going to have to go on the road regularly once Big 12 play starts. But as the team figures out who has the confidence to score against good defense, I expect they will be better. On Wednesday, it was freshmen Sheldon McClellan and Jonathan Holmes stepping up against the Tar Heels. (Interestingly, prized recruit Sterling Gibbs, the player who backed out of a commitment to Maryland, has the worst efficiency stats for Texas right now.)
- We knew St. John’s and Boston College were going to have a rough season with so many young players, and now Nurideen Lindsey has left St. John’s.
Fewest Minutes to Freshmen
(Playing in a Top 11 Conference or Pomeroy Top 50)
Team |
Conf |
Pct Min Fresh |
Pct Poss Fresh |
San Diego State |
MWC |
0% |
0% |
Oklahoma |
B12 |
0% |
0% |
UNLV |
MWC |
0% |
0% |
Iona |
MAAC |
0% |
0% |
St. Louis |
A10 |
3% |
2% |
Colorado State |
MWC |
3% |
3% |
Dayton |
A10 |
4% |
3% |
Southern Miss |
CUSA |
4% |
3% |
Kansas |
B12 |
4% |
3% |
Missouri St. |
MVC |
4% |
4% |
Florida St. |
ACC |
4% |
4% |
Belmont |
A-Sun |
5% |
4% |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
5% |
5% |
Arizona St. |
P12 |
5% |
4% |
Missouri |
B12 |
5% |
4% |
Iowa St. |
B12 |
6% |
5% |
St. Bonaventure |
A10 |
6% |
4% |
San Francisco |
WCC |
6% |
5% |
Auburn |
SEC |
7% |
4% |
Nebraska |
B10 |
7% |
5% |
- Thanks to a host of transfers, San Diego State and UNLV have maintained veteran lineups despite losing players to graduation. And that’s why the MWC is having another great season.
- Oklahoma has gotten off to a fine start under new head coach Lon Kruger, but keep in mind that he is not breaking in any freshmen. Much like Mike Rice at Rutgers last year, he’s trying to ring some victories out of the current roster before loading up with recruits next season.
- I can’t remember a time when Kansas didn’t have a marquee freshman playing a big role.
Predictions
My guess is that the teams relying heavily on freshmen will struggle in January. It is hard to go on the road in a hostile environment for the first time with a young team. But if you give them time, I would guess that at least some of these teams will show shocking improvement. Don’t be surprised if Villanova goes on a surprise run in the Big East tournament or if Arkansas suddenly starts springing upsets in February.
On the flip side, I’d be cautious about a team like Missouri. Are they peaking in December? And for a team like Arizona St., things are even more depressing. With a roster filled with older players, but few wins, there is not much hope.
By Conference
Big Ten |
Pct Min Freshm |
Pct Poss Fresh |
Nebraska |
7% |
5% |
Wisconsin |
8% |
8% |
Ohio St. |
15% |
13% |
Purdue |
16% |
16% |
Michigan |
18% |
22% |
Indiana |
20% |
20% |
Northwestern |
20% |
14% |
Iowa |
21% |
22% |
Illinois |
22% |
18% |
Penn St. |
24% |
21% |
Minnesota |
26% |
25% |
Michigan St. |
31% |
30% |
If Wisconsin is always ranked high in the computer rankings, why isn’t Bo Ryan a regular in the Final Four? One hypothesis is that Bo Ryan doesn’t recruit the type of athletes you need to be successful in the tournament. I’m sure that matters to some degree, but Wisconsin hasn’t exactly been losing to North Carolina in the tournament. The last five years the Badgers have been knocked out by UNLV, Davidson, Xavier, Cornell, and Butler. The simplest and most correct answer is that the NCAA tournament represents a small sample of games, and anything can happen in a small sample.
But while that is right, it is not very satisfying. So let me throw out another explanation: Bo Ryan’s teams are over-rated in the margin-of-victory calculations because he always has a veteran team on the floor. Bo Ryan’s lineups are consistently more mature than his opponents. Not only does Bo Ryan depend a lot on upperclassmen, he also red-shirts a ton of players. That means Bo Ryan’s team typically features, at most one or two players under 20 on the floor at all times, and that means his team doesn’t have the same dumb freshmen mistakes as other teams. But it does not mean that we should predict Wisconsin will beat North Carolina or Kentucky on a neutral floor.
Let me put it another way. Ryan Evans is a relative newcomer to the Badger lineup, but as a red-shirt junior, he’s been through a ton of Wisconsin practices. Compare him to Michigan St. freshman Branden Dawson who sees similar playing time at a similar position for the Spartans. Evans’ efficiency stats are better than Dawson’s at this point in the season. But if you had to wager, would you pick Dawson or Evans to thrive in March?
Pac-12 |
Pct Min Fresh |
Pct Poss Fresh |
Arizona St. |
5% |
4% |
UCLA |
9% |
7% |
Oregon |
9% |
11% |
California |
12% |
9% |
Oregon St. |
12% |
11% |
Stanford |
17% |
19% |
Washington St. |
17% |
17% |
Colorado |
24% |
26% |
Utah |
27% |
23% |
USC |
28% |
26% |
Arizona |
29% |
30% |
Washington |
31% |
36% |
The problem for the Pac-12 isn’t that the teams are playing too many freshmen. (If you get out a slide rule, the Pac-12 actually averages 18% of minutes given to freshmen which is lower than the D1 average and lower than the Big Ten.) The problem is that because so many players have left early for the NBA in recent years, the players who have stuck around are not good enough.
ACC |
Pct Min Fresh |
Pct Poss Fresh |
Florida St. |
4% |
4% |
Georgia Tech |
5% |
5% |
North Carolina St. |
8% |
7% |
Miami FL |
10% |
11% |
Virginia |
15% |
16% |
North Carolina |
17% |
19% |
Duke |
24% |
28% |
Wake Forest |
24% |
16% |
Maryland |
28% |
24% |
Clemson |
30% |
22% |
Virginia Tech |
35% |
33% |
Boston College |
65% |
70% |
On a lot of teams, the freshmen defer to the upperclassmen. See Wake Forest, Maryland, Clemson, and Virginia Tech where the percentage of minutes exceeds the percentage of possession’s used. But that isn’t happening at North Carolina. PJ Hairston and James Michael McAdoo take more than their fair share of shots when on the floor.
Big East |
Pct Min Fresh |
Pct Poss Fresh |
South Florida |
9% |
9% |
Syracuse |
12% |
10% |
Notre Dame |
12% |
10% |
Louisville |
16% |
18% |
Cincinnati |
17% |
13% |
Marquette |
18% |
15% |
DePaul |
21% |
16% |
Pittsburgh |
21% |
17% |
Providence |
27% |
23% |
Connecticut |
28% |
27% |
Seton Hall |
31% |
19% |
Georgetown |
36% |
30% |
Villanova |
40% |
33% |
Rutgers |
47% |
49% |
West Virginia |
53% |
42% |
St. John's |
61% |
61% |
Earlier this year, I talked about how Marquette’s Buzz Williams and Notre Dame’s Mike Brey refuse to play freshmen. And while Marquette is still below the D1 average, this season is the most minutes Buzz Williams has ever given to freshmen in his entire career. On the other hand, Mike Brey refuses to break the long-term trend.
Big 12 |
Pct Min Fresh |
Pct Poss Fresh |
Oklahoma |
0% |
0% |
Kansas |
4% |
3% |
Missouri |
5% |
4% |
Iowa St. |
6% |
5% |
Baylor |
18% |
21% |
Texas A&M |
21% |
19% |
Kansas St. |
23% |
29% |
Oklahoma St. |
34% |
41% |
Texas Tech |
43% |
46% |
Texas |
61% |
62% |
It is hard to believe that “team transfer” aka Iowa St., is actually giving more minutes to freshmen than three other Big 12 teams.
SEC |
Pct Min Fresh |
Pct Poss Fresh |
Auburn |
7% |
4% |
Vanderbilt |
17% |
16% |
Tennessee |
18% |
11% |
Florida |
20% |
20% |
Georgia |
25% |
31% |
South Carolina |
26% |
26% |
Mississippi St. |
26% |
24% |
Mississippi |
26% |
28% |
LSU |
33% |
35% |
Arkansas |
39% |
44% |
Alabama |
44% |
37% |
Kentucky |
53% |
54% |
LSU freshmen PG Anthony Hickey has been an extremely pleasant surprise, but he’s taken a few too many dumb shots this year. If he improves his shot selection, the win against Marquette can be more than a fluke.