Today I want to talk about all 154 players that have made some noise for the teams in the Sweet Sixteen this year. While I am ignoring a handful of players who stayed glued to the bench all year, today I will discuss everyone else, from the role players to the superstars.
Injured or kicked off the team (8): Iowa St.’s Georges Niang, Arizona’s Brandon Ashley, Michigan’s Mitch McGary, Stanford’s Aaron Bright, Tennessee’s Robert Hubbs, Florida’s Eli Carter, Louisville’s Chane Behanan and Kevin Ware.
Niang is the most recent player to get injured, but he certainly isn’t the first. Perhaps the most interesting story belongs to Kevin Ware. A year ago, he broke his leg. In the fall, he was back playing in an exhibition. But some combination of off-court issues and injuries have caused him to no longer travel with Louisville this season.
New to lineup thanks to those injuries (3): Iowa St.’s Daniel Edozie, Arizona’s Elliott Pitts and Jordin Mayes.
With Niang and Ashley going down, these players have seen their minutes tick up lately. But we still don’t know very much about how good these players can be. As much as injuries hurt, sometimes the best news is that the opposition doesn’t have a detailed scouting report on these players yet.
Cut from the rotation late in the year (15): Baylor’s Ish Wainwright, Connecticut’s Omar Calhoun and Tyler Olander, Dayton’s Devon Scott and Kyle Davis, Florida’s Devon Walker and Jacob Kurtz, Kentucky’s Dominique Hawkins, Louisville’s Tim Henderson, Michigan St.’s Alex Gauna and Russell Byrd, San Diego St.’s Dakarai Allen, Stanford’s Grant Verhoeven, Tennessee’s AJ Davis, Virginia’s Darion Atkins.
These players may play a few minutes this weekend. And one or two might even play a larger role if there is some unexpected foul trouble. But all these players have seen their minutes cut at the end of the year. The reasons are fairly straightforward. Everyone on this list either has a low ORtg or never shoots. And you can’t afford to put non-scorers on the floor in the NCAA tournament.
Never plays but you should care (1): Florida’s Chris Walker.
Walker was an elite recruit but eligibility issues prevented him from practicing with Florida for most of the year. If Florida can get a commanding lead and get to garbage time, look for him to get a monster dunk.
They started as walk-ons (2): Kentucky’s Jarrod Polson and Stanford’s Robbie Lemons.
Because both teams lack guard depth these two players will sometimes play meaningful minutes. They are mainly in to help with ball-handling.
One game wonders? (2): Virginia’s Evan Nolte and Connecticut’s Terrence Samuel
Nolte was starting to fall out of the rotation but he hit two huge threes against Coastal Carolina when the game was still in doubt. Samuel scored a career high 11 points in the NCAA tournament game against Villanova.
He’s a big body (4): Wisconsin’s Duje Dukan, Michigan St.’s Gavin Schilling, Tennesee’s Derek Reese, Arizona’s Matt Korcheck.
The rotation patterns suggest these team’s head coaches are not in love with these players. They play because big men get in foul trouble and need rest. But these players are only on the court for short stretches. Schilling is one of only two Spartans to play in every game this season.
Defensive subs (8):
Player |
Team |
Steal Rate |
Block Rate |
Justin Anderson |
Virginia |
1.1 |
4.1 |
Dwayne Polee |
San Diego St. |
3.7 |
3.3 |
Lasan Kromah |
Connecticut |
3.1 |
1.8 |
Aqeel Quinn |
San Diego St. |
2.8 |
0.4 |
Alvin Ellis III |
Michigan St. |
2.7 |
1.2 |
Armani Moore |
Tennessee |
2.3 |
5 |
Kendall Pollard |
Dayton |
2.3 |
4.2 |
Marcus Allen |
Stanford |
2.3 |
0.7 |
Defensive subs is sometimes a code word for “this guy can’t shoot.” That isn’t quite fair to everyone on this list. Dwayne Polee is actually a pretty solid spot-up shooter. But it is fair to say that none of these guys are scoring stars. They get their hands on steals, or in Justin Anderson’s case, they block a lot of shots from the wing position. And that still earns them some rotation time.
Get the opening tip, then come sit on the bench (2): Connecticut’s Philip Nolan and Dayton’s Matt Kavanaugh.
Despite starting a ton of games for these two teams, these two play shockingly few minutes.
Defensive rebounding specialists (6):
Player |
Team |
DR% |
Jon Horford |
Michigan |
25.6 |
Josh Davis |
San Diego St. |
24.9 |
Akil Mitchell |
Virginia |
23.7 |
Dustin Hogue |
Iowa St. |
20.5 |
Cory Jefferson |
Baylor |
20.8 |
Will Yeguete |
Florida |
18.6 |
There are elite defensive rebounders in the groups that will follow (Kenny Kaminsky, Rico Gathers, Branden Dawson, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Adreian Payne, Julius Randle), but for these six, it is their defining quality.
Two point scorers (7):
Player |
Team |
eFG% |
Royce O’Neale |
Baylor |
61.6 |
Anthony Gill |
Virginia |
59.7 |
Kaleb Tarczewski |
Arizona |
57.6 |
Stefan Nastic |
Stanford |
57.4 |
Norman Powell |
UCLA |
57.3 |
Travis Wear |
UCLA |
56.1 |
David Wear |
UCLA |
55.7 |
These are all players with a high eFG% without taking a lot of threes. I am cheating a bit with this category, as these players do not have all that much in common. But I honestly did not know what to do with these guys. They aren’t great rebounders, they are not really their team’s primary ball-handlers, and they aren’t three point gunners. But they can all score when you get them the ball inside the arc.
O’Neale is probably the most versatile player on the list. He has solid assist numbers, makes wide open threes, and is decent on the boards. But he makes 56% of his twos and that is probably his biggest contribution at this point.
Rim Protectors (7):
Player |
Team |
DR% |
Block% |
Amida Brimah |
Connecticut |
11.3 |
15.4 |
Willie Cauley-Stein |
Kentucky |
16.0 |
12.2 |
Isaiah Austin |
Baylor |
13.5 |
11.9 |
Skylar Spencer |
San Diego St. |
11.8 |
11.5 |
Mangok Mathiang |
Louisville |
13.2 |
9.9 |
Matt Costello |
Michigan St. |
14.8 |
9.8 |
Mike Tobey |
Virginia |
12.3 |
7 |
I might be stretching a bit with Tobey, but these are the best shot-blockers left in the field.
No one left in this tournament is both an elite shot-blocker and defensive rebounder. These guys are all tall and explosive enough to have defensive rebounding rates above 20%, but none of them come close. Because these guys go for blocks, they tend to be out of position when fighting for defensive boards.
When you get the offensive rebound, it is easier to score (16):
Player |
Team |
OR% |
Rico Gathers |
Baylor |
18.2 |
Dakari Johnson |
Kentucky |
17.5 |
Jeronne Maymon |
Tennessee |
13.9 |
Stephan Van Treese |
Louisville |
13.9 |
Branden Dawson |
Michigan St. |
13.3 |
Jordan Morgan |
Michigan |
12.8 |
Patric Young |
Florida |
12.8 |
Tony Parker |
UCLA |
12.5 |
Dorian Finney-Smith |
Florida |
12.1 |
Alex Poythress |
Kentucky |
11.6 |
Dyshawn Pierre |
Dayton |
10.6 |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson |
Arizona |
10.5 |
Jalen Robinson |
Dayton |
10.5 |
Taurean Prince |
Baylor |
8.7 |
J.J. O`Brien |
San Diego St. |
8.3 |
Winston Shepard |
San Diego St. |
7.2 |
Most of these guys are not skilled offensive players, but by getting offensive rebounds, they tend to get high quality put-backs. Shepard is a surprisingly good passer for a rebounder of his size.
Finney-Smith is a little hard to classify, but given his shooting woes this year, his put-backs are probably his greatest contribution.
The Shooters (26):
Do not leave these players open:
Player |
Team |
3P% |
3PM |
3PA |
Michael Frazier II |
Florida |
44% |
110 |
248 |
Brady Heslip |
Baylor |
46% |
109 |
235 |
Ben Brust |
Wisconsin |
39% |
89 |
229 |
Jordan Sibert |
Dayton |
43% |
79 |
184 |
Joe Harris |
Virginia |
40% |
70 |
173 |
Luke Hancock |
Louisville |
34% |
65 |
192 |
Naz Long |
Iowa St. |
41% |
63 |
154 |
Zak Irvin |
Michigan |
41% |
58 |
142 |
Caris LeVert |
Michigan |
41% |
57 |
139 |
Gabe York |
Arizona |
39% |
56 |
144 |
Niels Giffey |
Connecticut |
52% |
55 |
106 |
Anthony Brown |
Stanford |
45% |
52 |
115 |
Zach LaVine |
UCLA |
38% |
48 |
125 |
Josh Gasser |
Wisconsin |
46% |
47 |
103 |
DeAndre Daniels |
Connecticut |
45% |
46 |
103 |
Khari Price |
Dayton |
41% |
46 |
113 |
Wayne Blackshear |
Louisville |
40% |
45 |
112 |
Matt Thomas |
Iowa St. |
34% |
44 |
130 |
Sam Dekker |
Wisconsin |
32% |
39 |
121 |
Devin Oliver |
Dayton |
39% |
37 |
95 |
Kenny Kaminski |
Michigan St. |
49% |
37 |
75 |
Matt Shrigley |
San Diego St. |
35% |
35 |
100 |
Josh Richardson |
Tennessee |
34% |
33 |
96 |
John Gage |
Stanford |
36% |
26 |
73 |
Josh Huestis |
Stanford |
34% |
25 |
74 |
Bronson Koenig |
Wisconsin |
32% |
19 |
60 |
A lot of these guys don't fit in just one category. Luke Hancock and Anthony Brown are very good at driving and getting fouled. Wayne Blackshear is a versatile defender. Devin Oliver and Josh Huestis are great rebounders. Sam Dekker is a very good driver for a big man. Regardless, you don't want to leave any of these guys open.
Pass-First PGs (13):
Player |
Team |
ORtg |
A% |
A/TO |
T.J. McConnell |
Arizona |
112.5 |
31.1 |
3.1 |
Kasey Hill |
Florida |
99.0 |
25.5 |
2.0 |
Darius Thompson |
Tennessee |
104.3 |
25.2 |
2.7 |
Spike Albrecht |
Michigan |
127.0 |
24.8 |
4.6 |
London Perrantes |
Virginia |
118.3 |
24.3 |
3.6 |
Scoochie Smith |
Dayton |
88.7 |
20.7 |
1.8 |
Monte Morris |
Iowa St. |
125.2 |
20.5 |
5.0 |
Derrick Walton Jr. |
Michigan |
112.3 |
20.3 |
1.9 |
Gary Franklin |
Baylor |
105.1 |
19.9 |
1.7 |
Bryce Alford |
UCLA |
110.3 |
19.2 |
2.1 |
Travis Trice |
Michigan St. |
118.2 |
18.9 |
2.3 |
Terry Rozier |
Louisville |
116.9 |
17.0 |
3.0 |
Antonio Barton |
Tennessee |
111.1 |
15.8 |
2.2 |
Hill, Thompson, Smith, and Franklin are the only guys without a solid jump shot, and that hurts their ORtg overall. But Hill makes up for it by getting to the free throw line at an elite rate. Barton has not been an effective creator this year and thus the ball-handling duties have fallen more on Tennessee's Jordan McRae.
Scoring and Passing (7):
Player |
Team |
PPG |
PctPoss |
ORtg |
A% |
A/TO |
Kenny Chery |
Baylor |
11.5 |
23.1 |
115.6 |
34 |
2.3 |
Keith Appling |
Michigan St. |
11.7 |
21.5 |
110.1 |
26.3 |
2.2 |
Traevon Jackson |
Wisconsin |
10.8 |
22.5 |
107 |
25 |
1.8 |
Andrew Harrison |
Kentucky |
11 |
21.7 |
104 |
23.1 |
1.4 |
Ryan Boatright |
Connecticut |
11.9 |
22.5 |
104.7 |
22 |
1.8 |
Chris Jones |
Louisville |
10.4 |
21.7 |
110.2 |
20.6 |
2.1 |
Vee Sanford |
Dayton |
9.9 |
25 |
103.4 |
17.5 |
1.2 |
Appling, Jackson, and Harrison live at the FT line. Appling is obviously still not 100%, and the biggest question left in this tournament is whether Appling's injury will hurt Michigan St. when they play a close game against a quality opponent.
The stats don’t tell the story (3): Wisconsin’s Nigel Hayes, Michigan’s Glenn Robinson, and Arizona’s Aaron Gordon.
Aaron Gordon should be a lottery pick in the draft, but when you look at his stats, he doesn’t dominate in any statistical category. But I strongly believe the stats are missing something here. Sean Miller has taken a team to the NCAA tournament 7 times, but he’s never had a Top 10 defense in his career until this season. And I believe Gordon and Hollis-Jefferson are largely responsible for the peak defensive success. Gordon has an incredible ability to both help in the lane and close out on three point shooters. Gordon has a superstar level impact even if that isn’t reflected in the stats.
Glenn Robinson has seen his draft stock slip substantially this season, and his numbers aren’t great. But he is still an impressive player in the open floor and he has the athleticism to frustrate opposing players.
Finally, Nigel Hayes is statistically a liability for the Badgers. He is one of the least efficient players on the team. But what makes him so important is that Hayes is the Badgers only true inside big man. Hayes has a free throw rate of 94, meaning he gets 94 FTs for every 100 shots he takes. For a perimeter oriented Badger team, he provides some key balance.
They Do Everything! (5):
Player |
Team |
PPG |
DR% |
A% |
Steal% |
Shabazz Napier |
Connecticut |
17.8 |
15.2 |
30.9 |
3.0 |
Kyle Anderson |
UCLA |
14.7 |
25.4 |
34.3 |
3.0 |
Dwight Powell |
Stanford |
13.9 |
17.3 |
20.5 |
2.3 |
Malcolm Brogdon |
Virginia |
12.6 |
17.3 |
19.4 |
2.4 |
Denzel Valentine |
Michigan St. |
8.1 |
18.3 |
23.0 |
1.9 |
Napier is one of the best rebounding guards you will ever see. Brogdon is a super-versatile wing player. And Anderson and Powell are talented playmakers with the size of forwards. Valentine doesn't have the scoring of the others, but he's still a dynamic point forward. Other than Powell, all are quality three point shooters too.
The Pure Scorers (19):
These players all score a lot, but let’s break down the contributing factors. Jarnell Stokes is scoring a lot despite Tennessee’s slow tempo. Adreian Payne is scoring a lot, despite playing limited minutes. Meanwhile Russ Smith is the highest volume scorer left in the field, and Nik Stauskas is the most efficient.
Player |
Team |
PPG |
Tempo |
PctMin |
PctPoss |
ORtg |
Nik Stauskas |
Michigan |
17.4 |
62.7 |
85.4 |
23.7 |
124.5 |
Frank Kaminsky |
Wisconsin |
13.6 |
63.7 |
66.3 |
24.9 |
123.0 |
Jordan Adams |
UCLA |
17.4 |
70.1 |
72.6 |
25.6 |
121.7 |
Xavier Thames |
San Diego St. |
17.3 |
63.4 |
77.3 |
27.6 |
120.6 |
Montrezl Harrell |
Louisville |
14.0 |
69.1 |
72.9 |
22.1 |
117.6 |
Jarnell Stokes |
Tennessee |
15.2 |
62.8 |
80.3 |
26.0 |
117.4 |
Aaron Harrison |
Kentucky |
14.1 |
66.5 |
79.7 |
20.7 |
116.6 |
Jordan McRae |
Tennessee |
18.6 |
62.8 |
79.4 |
28.6 |
115.8 |
Casey Prather |
Florida |
14.1 |
62.8 |
66.8 |
25.2 |
115.4 |
Russ Smith |
Louisville |
18.1 |
69.1 |
72.9 |
30.8 |
114.5 |
Nick Johnson |
Arizona |
16.3 |
64.6 |
80.7 |
24.8 |
114.4 |
Gary Harris |
Michigan St. |
16.9 |
66.4 |
73.2 |
25.5 |
114.1 |
Adreian Payne |
Michigan St. |
16.6 |
66.4 |
55.1 |
27.2 |
114.0 |
Melvin Ejim |
Iowa St. |
18.1 |
71.9 |
74.3 |
25.8 |
113.0 |
Chasson Randle |
Stanford |
18.7 |
67.0 |
87.0 |
25.5 |
112.9 |
Scottie Wilbekin |
Florida |
13.1 |
62.8 |
72.4 |
21.5 |
112.9 |
Julius Randle |
Kentucky |
15.1 |
66.5 |
75.9 |
26.3 |
111.2 |
DeAndre Kane |
Iowa St. |
17.1 |
71.9 |
84.2 |
26.7 |
110.9 |
James Young |
Kentucky |
14.3 |
66.5 |
80.1 |
22.0 |
110.4 |
Harrell, Stokes, and Julius Randle are all monster offensive rebounders. Other than those three and Casey Prather, all these players are dangerous from three point range. Surprisingly, Jordan Adams has the best steal rate, though Russ Smith isn't far behind. Kane and Smith are also dynamic passers and creators for their teammates.