Some NBA team executives believe that the league office will seek to institute a hard cap -- a total salary number which no team may exceed -- in the next collective bargaining agreement.  

Such a firm cap could be phased in over a period of years, allowing teams to gradually shed payroll after the 2010-2011 season.

"If there's going to be a lockout, then there's a 99 percent chance there is going to be a hard cap," one GM said.

The possibility of a hard cap could chill spending this summer.

"Teams might say, 'I don't want to give $15 million to $20 million to one guy because that might lock me out of a hard cap,'" said a team executive. "It could change everything."

A hard cap would drive player salaries down considerably.

"In the new deal, $8 million is going to be star-player money," predicted one GM.