Trying to get a handle on the National Basketball Association college draft?

Forget it.

As Tom Enlund of the Milwaukee Journal reports, for a time, this draft seemed cut-and-dried. But as the moment nears when the Houston Rockets exercise their No. 1 pick tonight, it has become so unpredictable that some team executives are expressing frustration.

"There's a lot of activity and a lot of games being played," Phoenix Suns general manager Bryan Colangelo said. "It's a big poker match.

There are several reasons for the whirlwind nature of this draft:

The Houston Rockets still had some loose ends to tie up with the Chinese government in their quest to draft 7-foot-5 center Yao Ming.
Duke forward Mike Dunleavy's supposed desire to play next season in Memphis, where his father, Mike Dunleavy Sr., may end up coaching at some point. Dunleavy Jr., who spent his youth in Milwaukee when his father was coaching the Bucks, is being projected as the third overall pick, to Golden State. Memphis drafts fourth.
The soaring value of Brazilian forward Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, who is turning the projected draft order on its ear. The Bucks are said to be on the Hilario bandwagon and are rumored to have discussed a deal with Cleveland involving the Cavaliers' No. 6 pick and Milwaukee's Glenn Robinson.
The willingness of teams with desirable picks - Memphis, Cleveland, the Clippers - to deal.
"Teams all the time tell you things . . . 'We're going to take this guy,' and you know darn well they're not going to take them," Memphis general manager Jerry West said. "I don't think you tell people what you're going to do."

Chinese negotiations
As of Tuesday evening, the Rockets were still waiting to receive the letter of clearance from the International Basketball Federation that would allow them to draft Yao.

Yao's availability had come down to some final negotiations between Yao's Chinese agent and the China Basketball Association. Chinese officials wanted a written promise that Yao would be available to play for the Chinese national team in the Olympics, World Championships and Asia Games, which are to be played in October, when the Rockets would be in training camp. Yao will not be at the draft tonight in New York because he will be training with the national team for a tournament this month against Yugoslavia, Italy and Australia.

There was still a chance that the Rockets would get cold feet with regard to Yao and move in another direction. But it was the general feeling among various league executives that the Rockets would not do that, especially after all the time and effort they had invested in Yao.

"We've evaluated him and we've decided he's the guy we want," Houston general manager Carroll Dawson said.

Should the Rockets select Yao, Duke guard Jay Williams is a lock to go to Chicago second. That would leave Dunleavy for Golden State at No. 3. Or would it?

A family affair
Dunleavy has expressed a desire to play in Memphis alongside his former Duke teammate Shane Battier. Some in the league think West may try to bring in a father-and-son act with the two Dunleavys but others in the league think it would be difficult for the elder Dunleavy to coach his son. Some have even questioned whether the younger Dunleavy, who was surrounded by talented teammates at Duke, deserves to go third.

"No disrespect to him," said forward Caron Butler of Connecticut, another of the projected top-10 picks. "But he played with a team full of great players: Jay Williams, Carlos Boozer, Chris Duhon. I'm not hating him, but that's an advantage he had."

Hilario, a 6-foot-10, 260-pound block of granite who played the last two seasons with the Vasco de Gama team of Rio de Janeiro, could turn into the one of the top stories of the draft. Once hopeful of cracking into the top 20, "Nene" - which means "little one" or "baby" in Portuguese - looks like a sure bet to go in the top eight and maybe even as high as No. 4.

"He's a big kid," Bucks general manager Ernie Grunfeld said. "He's very athletic and has a great personality. He has great feet . . . a former soccer player."

Asked about the possibility of the Bucks trading up in the draft, Grunfeld said, "We've tried to move up. We're still talking."

In an effort to get Hilario?

"Not necessarily," Grunfeld said. "Depends on who is left."

The Bucks are also said to be high on forward Chris Wilcox of Maryland, who will go in the top 10.

High on Hilario
Michael Coyne, Hilario's agent, said he received a call from Miami asking how the Heat could get Hilario. Coyne told Miami, which holds the No. 10 pick, to strike a deal with Cleveland for the No. 6 pick so the Heat could snatch him up before New York took him at No. 7.

As always, the trade rumors were rampant Tuesday. The hottest rumor, and one that seemed most likely to occur, had the Clippers packaging their Nos. 8 and 12 picks and sending them to Cleveland in a deal for point guard Andre Miller, who then may be sent to New Orleans for point guard Baron Davis.

Also, the No. 17 pick that New Orleans acquired from Washington for guard Courtney Alexander was expected to be sent to Denver for James Posey. Golden State was said to be seeking a mid-first-round pick to use on a point guard.

Also, Phoenix was looking to trade up to acquire a forward, possibly Nikoloz Tskitishvili, a 19-year-old 7-footer from the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. One possibility was for the Suns to swap their No. 9 pick for Cleveland's No. 6 choice and allow the Cavaliers to keep a future first-round pick that is owed to the Suns. Phoenix on Tuesday hired Mike D'Antoni, who was an assistant coach for the Benetton Treviso team in Italy that Tskitishvili played on last season